How are Tampa home prices expected to change in 2025-2026?

Insights from Tampa Real Estate Experts Emeri & Joe Lewkowicz

If you’ve been wondering whether Tampa home prices are going up, staying flat, or cooling off in 2025–2026, you’re not alone. Buyers, sellers, and investors across the Tampa Bay area are asking us the same question every day. With more than 40 years of combined experience helping families navigate this market, we’ve seen Tampa through rapid growth cycles, inventory shortages, economic shifts, and everything in between — and we’re here to break down what we see coming next.

A Market That’s Normalizing — Not Crashing

Let’s clear up the biggest misconception first: Tampa is not heading for a price crash.

Here’s what we’re seeing:

1. Inventory is rising, but slowly. We’re finally moving away from the ultra-tight 2021–2023 market, but supply is still far below what we’d consider balanced.

2. Demand remains strong. Tampa continues to attract new residents from the Northeast, Midwest, and West Coast because of affordability, lifestyle, and job growth.

3. Interest rates are stabilizing. As rates ease slightly into 2025, more buyers are re-entering the market.
   
   

These factors point toward steady, moderate price growth, not a decline.

Our 2025–2026 Tampa Home Price Outlook

Here’s our professional projection based on current trends and decades of watching this market cycle:

2025: Gradual Appreciation

We expect Tampa home prices to increase 3% to 5% on average across most neighborhoods.

This means:

1. Well-priced homes will continue selling quickly.

2. Sellers who prepare their home properly will still see competitive offers.

3. Buyers will have more breathing room — but the best homes will still move fast.
   
   

Certain communities like South Tampa, Westchase, Carrollwood, and Seminole Heights may see slightly above-average appreciation because of high demand and limited turnover.

2026: Stronger, More Competitive Growth

Looking ahead to 2026, we anticipate appreciation rising to 5% to 7%, especially if interest rates drop into the mid-5% range.

Why?

Because Tampa remains one of the most desirable relocation markets in the country. Population growth, job expansion, and continued low inventory will keep prices trending upward. This isn’t speculative — it’s the same pattern we’ve watched repeatedly over decades in Tampa real estate.

What This Means for Buyers

If you’ve been waiting for prices to fall, you might be waiting forever. Tampa’s fundamentals are simply too strong. The good news? An easing rate environment in 2025 can help improve affordability.

Our advice:

1. Start your search early to catch less competition.

2. Get pre-approved so you’re ready to move when the right home hits the market.

3. Don’t chase perfection — the “perfect” home often never hits the market.
   
   

We’ve helped countless buyers find incredible properties simply because they moved strategically, not emotionally.

What This Means for Sellers

If you're planning to sell in 2025 or 2026, the outlook is very favorable.

Sellers can expect:

1. Consistent demand

2. More qualified buyers entering the market

3. Strong pricing for homes that show well and are marketed correctly
   
   

Pricing strategy will matter more than ever — and that’s where our 40+ years of experience makes the difference. We know exactly how to position your home to maximize value and attract motivated buyers.

What This Means for Investors

Tampa remains one of the Southeast’s strongest long-term bets.

In 2025–2026:

1. Appreciation is projected to outperform national averages

2. Rental demand remains extremely high

3. New construction in suburban pockets continues offering opportunity
   
   

Whether you're flipping, buying rental property, or entering the luxury market, the key is understanding micro-markets, and that’s something we specialize in.

Final Thoughts

We’ve seen Tampa grow, shift, tighten, and expand — and through every market change, one thing stays the same: Tampa remains one of the most resilient and desirable real estate markets in the country.

If you’re planning a move in 2025 or 2026, we’d love to guide you. With deep local roots, decades of experience, and a passion for this market, we’re here to help you make smart, confident real estate decisions.

— Emeri Lewkowicz & Joe Lewkowicz
The Lewkowicz Group